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ECB expects a lower inflation over the next 12 months

Autor: Tiberiu Porojan
2 min

According to the latest Consumer Expectations Survey from European Central Bank inflation is expected to decrease both for the next 12 months and for the three years ahead.

Thus, median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased further to 3.4%, from 3.9% in May, and those for inflation three years ahead also declined, easing to 2.3% from 2.5% in May.

Having fallen in the previous two months, uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months was unchanged. Inflation expectations remained well below the perceived past inflation rate, particularly at the three-year horizon.

Inflation perceptions and expectations remained closely aligned across income groups, although younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 55-70).

Income and consumption
Consumers expected their income over the next 12 months to increase by 1.2%, as in May. Perceptions of spending growth over the previous 12 months decreased further to 6.7%, from 6.8% in May.

Expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months also decreased further to 3.4%, from 3.5% in May, their lowest level since March 2022. The drop in expectations for spending growth was observed among both younger (aged 18-24) and older (aged 55-70) respondents. (Income and consumption results)

Labour market and economic growth
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were slightly less negative, standing at -0.6%, compared with -0.7% in May.

Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead were unchanged at 11.0%. Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.9%), implying a broadly stable labour market.

Compared with March 2023, expectations for economic growth were 0.4 percentage points less negative and expectations for the unemployment rate 0.7 percentage points lower, reflecting more positive sentiment about the expected economic outlook. (Labour market and economic growth results)

Housing and credit access
Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 2.1% over the next 12 months, stabilising at a two-year low. Expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead decreased slightly to 5.0%, from 5.1% in May.

This decline was mainly driven by the expectations of medium and high-income groups, while the expectations of the two lower income quantiles were unchanged.

Perceived access to credit over the previous 12 months again eased slightly, as in May, while expectations for access to credit over the next 12 months were broadly unchanged. (Housing and credit access results).