Retail sales in July experienced a marginal decline of 0.2%, a bit worse than anticipated. Although this isn’t a promising start to Q3, the data suggests that the years-long downward trend in sales is beginning to stabilize.
The dip in retail sales across the Eurozone was largely fueled by countries in the north, including Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Ireland, all of which reported significant reductions in retail transactions in July. In contrast, France and Spain showed signs of increasing sales volumes. Italy has not yet released its data.
The current figures align with the tepid performance in retail sales observed since the middle of 2021. From that point, there has been a shift in consumer spending towards services as economies reopened, detracting from the expenditure on goods—a sector that was previously overindulged during the initial phases of the pandemic.
Nonetheless, the data reveals a softening in the declining trend of retail sales. Over the last few months, it appears that sales are starting to find a floor. This could signify that the turbulence in post-pandemic consumer behavior is leveling off, and the increase in real wages might offer some relief for the retail sector struggling with dwindling volumes. Although it’s premature to make any concrete judgments, these signs could be positive for both retail and goods manufacturing sectors.
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